Given
that (a) stocks have fallen for four consecutive days and (b) there haven't
been any clear-cut, obvious catalysts to the pullback, it is probably safe to
say that there are "issues" at work behind the scenes.
Granted,
the decline over the past four days hasn't been severe (the S&P is down
just 1.63 percent from its September 18 high). And as such, the bulls will
contend that there isn't anything to worry about at this stage.
However,
given that in the stock market "things don't matter until they do - and
then they matter a lot," it is probably a good idea to have at least a
cursory understanding of the "issues" at hand - if for no other
reason than to protect oneself against something big sneaking up and causing a
really serious problem at the corner of Broad and Wall.
Based
on the news-flow of late, there are three "issues" that traders and
their computers appear to care about at the present time including: Iran, the
debt debate and the taper.
So,
let's spend a few minutes this morning breaking down these "issues"
and getting to the heart of each matter. Frankly, this may sound like a boring
exercise. However, it is important to remember that the markets don't like
surprises - so neither should you.
Is
Iran Really an Issue?
If
your first thought was to skip this section because nobody expects any serious
trouble out of the blustering leaders of Iran, you may want to think again.
While this issue has been largely off of traders' radar for some time now,
there were reports that the algo-induced blast up off of the morning lows
Tuesday was sponsored by comments President Obama made on Iran in front of the
United Nations.
According
to reports, Obama said that he had directed Secretary of State John Kerry to
pursue talks with the Iranian government regarding all things nuclear. The
President's comments, which sparked a ten point move up in the S&P in less
than thirty minutes and moved the index from red to green, seemed to be
interpreted as being rather dovish.
Connecting
the geopolitical dots, it should be noted that Obama's words followed remarks
from new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who is seen as having a mandate to
negotiate a deal that would allow the country to produce nuclear energy for
peaceful use - and not for military purposes.
The
bottom line here appears to be that if the algorithms care about comments on
this topic, perhaps traders should as well.
The
Fed's "Issues"
Traders
can't be blamed for doing a little head scratching on the subjects of Fed
policy, the taper, and/or the new Fed Chairman. All three issues have moved the
markets of late - in both directions - so doing a deeper dive into these
"issues" would seem to be appropriate.
On
the topics of Fed policy and "the taper," StreetAccount said it best
Tuesday. Here's an excerpt: "As the post-FOMC rally lost momentum late
last week, there was some focus on worries that policy dynamics have entered
into a vicious circle where the Fed cannot even get comfortable about dialing
back some of its policy accommodation without wreaking havoc on the market and
choking off the recovery, let alone begin the normalization process. There were
also concerns about the credibility of the Fed's thresholds following the
downward revisions to both the unemployment rate and fed funds forecasts."
One
of the real problems right now is the idea that there may be leadership vacuums
developing due to the uncertainty surrounding whom will head up the FOMC come
January. The fact that Fed officials have not been able to provide more color
on how the decision to taper will be made has been cited as an
"issue" in some trading circles.
The
bottom line on the issues relating to the Fed is that until the uncertainty is
removed, traders may be more interested in taking profits and avoiding headline
risk.
Fun
and Games in D.C.
Speaking
of headline risk, politicians in Washington are known to consistently be a
source of algo-inducing comments, rumors and innuendo. In fact, being able to
spin a catch phrase intended to incite their opponents may be in the job
description. Therefore, whenever Washington is in the spotlight, traders had
best be on their toes.
In
case you've been living in a cave, the key issue in and around the beltway
these days is the idea that the government is slated run out of money in six or
seven days. Point number one on this issue is that like the
"sequester" deadline, the October 1 date may not exactly be set in
stone.
If
you haven't been paying much attention to this issue, first of all, no one can
blame you as just about everyone in America has had it with the games played by
our elected officials. But the latest is that after the House passed a bill
this week that has not a chance in heck of becoming law, the Senate is now
messing around with their own bill.
Without
boring everyone to tears as to what could happen when and where, the bottom
line on this "issue" is that just about everyone on the planet
expects something to get done - at the last possible second, of course. In
short, the political stakes of being seen as the bad guy are too large. Oh, and
this is just the way that Washington plays the game.
So,
while there isn't a lot of selling being done based on the fears of what might
or might not happen in Washington, one could also conclude that there isn't a
lot of buying going on right now either. And this is something that could
easily continue until these "issues" are resolved.
Current
Market Drivers
We
strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily
basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks
are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be
surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the
driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).
T-1) The State of Fed Policy
T-1) Fun and Games in Washington (I.E. the Debt Ceiling)
3) The Outlook for the U.S./Global
Economy
The
State of the Trend
We
believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time frames. We
define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3
months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the
three primary trends:
Short-Term
Trend: Moderately Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)
Intermediate-Term
Trend: Positive
(Chart
below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)
Long-Term
Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 12 months)
Key
Technical Areas:
Traders
as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important
technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we
deem important to watch today:
- Near-Term
Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 1680
- Near-Term
Resistance Zone(s): 1700
The
State of the Tape
Momentum
indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E.
if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our
favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...
- Trend
and Breadth Confirmation Indicator: Neutral
- Price
Thrust Indicator:
Moderately Positive
- Volume
Thrust Indicator:
Positive
- Breadth
Thrust Indicator:
Positive
- Bull/Bear
Volume Relationship:
Moderately Positive
- Technical
Health of 100 Industry Groups: Moderately Positive
About Author: Mr. David Moenning
is a full-time professional money manager and is the President and Chief
Investment Strategist at Heritage Capital Management. He focuses on stock
market risk management, stock analysis, stock trading, market news and
research. Click here to claim a freecopy of Dave's Special Report on changes in the current market.