The past 2014 will undoubtedly take its place in the history. That year risks had been growing around Ukraine and the Middle East. One of the main events was the collapse of oil prices. As early as in June, 2014 barrel costed about 115$, but in the last days of the year quotes slumped to 56$.
What shall we expect in 2015 year?
Oil market
Main reasons of oil prices collapse in 2014:
- Increase of hydrocarbons production in the USA from 9.8 to 11.5 mln barrels per day;
- Recession in countries of the European Union led to decrease in consumption and prices of hydrocarbons;
- Growth of supply in Iran planning to increase production twice and Libya’s return to the market;
- Growth of supply in Iran planning to increase production twice and Libya’s return to the market;
- Technological factor: improvement of technology of production and decrease of prime cost as the result.
Now you can witness disproportion between demand and supply - each day, it is produced for 600-700 thousand of barrels more than is required by market.
Analytics of the US investment banks assume that within two first quarters of 2015 year this index can grow up to 1,25 mln barrels per day. This factor will put a strong pressure on oil quotations so that we can see how Lows of 2008 year are refreshed. At that time, cost of Brent was 36$ per barrel.
US dollar
The main global currency was boosted by growth of the US economy which was growing with the fastest pace for the last 11 years. US department of commerce revised its GDP estimation and defined it up to 5% per annum. Such estimation was justified by a higher consumer demand and expenses of business. It was the fastest pace since 2003. It was reported earlier that US economy grew for 3.9%.
Its intensive growth in 2014 lays a solid foundation for 2015 and we can expect that the US currency will be consolidated against its major competitors.
Gold
In conclusion let’s talk about gold. Since there is no inflation risk in the USA and on the contrary, deflation presses Europe, there is no ground for traders to invest in gold: savings are not depreciated. It can make precious metals less popular and quotes of gold may get to 1100$ per ounce.
Confident growth of the US economy will support global markets through 2015, whereas low oil prices will have a positive effect for the economic growth in general.
